Impacts of HIV/AIDS 2005–2025 in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia and East Timor

The HIV Epidemiological Modelling and Impact (HEMI) Study was commissioned by the Australian Government for the Governments of Papua New Guinea (PNG), Indonesia and East Timor. The research was conducted by New South Global Pty Limited in 2005.

An epidemiological model was developed to project the future course of the HIV epidemic over the period 2005–2025 in PNG, Indonesia and East Timor under three scenarios. The first scenario assumed that HIV interventions remain at current levels (baseline scenario). The second and third scenarios assumed increases in HIV interventions to medium and high response levels.

Projections of HIV case numbers and deaths were used as a basis to estimate future social, economic and security impacts.