Methods for Deriving UNAIDS Estimates

UNAIDS annually provides revised global, regional and country-specific modelled estimates to track the HIV epidemic, using the best available epidemiological and programmatic data. Modelled estimates are required because it is impossible to count the exact number of people living with HIV, people who are newly infected with HIV or people who have died from AIDS-related causes in any country. Knowing this for certain requires testing every person for HIV regularly and investigating all deaths, which is logistically impossible and ethically problematic. Modelled estimates and the lower and upper bounds around these estimates provide a scientifically appropriate way to describe HIV epidemic levels and trends.