Forecasting the Population-Level Impact of Reductions in HIV Antiretroviral Therapy in Papua New Guinea

Publications - Released in 2011

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a low income country that has experienced a rapidly expanding HIV epidemic. It has the highest HIV prevalence and incidence rate in the Pacific region with 28,294 HIV infections reported by December 2008 since the first diagnosed case in 1987. The vast majority of HIV cases have been due to heterosexual transmission with similar numbers of diagnoses in men and women. Fortunately, recent estimates suggest there has been a leveling out of HIV prevalence in PNG at approximately 1%. The reasons for this leveling of prevalence are currently unknown but could be due to the saturation of HIV in particular at risk population groups or geographic areas, or reflect the impact of the roll-out of intervention programs in recent years and the successful scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) services across the country. ART first became available in PNG in 2004 and the PNG National Department of Health recently estimated that more than 70% of people requiring treatment were receiving it in 2009.

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